Trump's Iran war
Unconstitutional, unnecessary, and unwise
On the next Net Assessment, we’ll almost certainly be discussing Trump’s decision to launch a war with Israel against Iran in the morning hours of February 28th. But since that show won’t post for another week, I’m dropping here my comments in a Stimson commentary that went out on Saturday.
Who Decides When America Goes to War?
President Trump has initiated a war against Iran without congressional approval, without a serious public debate, and in the face of overwhelming public opposition. In short, this war is unconstitutional, unwise, and a betrayal of his promise to put the interests of the American people first.
Terminology matters. This is a premeditated, preventive war, not a defensive action to address an imminent threat to the United States. The Constitution’s Article II authority, pertaining to the executive branch, has long been understood to allow the president to repel sudden attacks – it was never intended to allow a single person to launch the entire country into a war. That power was reserved for the Congress.
To be sure, in practice, past Congresses have shirked this duty, often allowing presidents to wage war at will. But the brazenness of President Trump’s decision to ignore that body, and the cowardice of those sitting members of Congress who refuse to uphold their obligations, is nothing short of breathtaking.
These obligations are not to a mere document. Members of Congress have a responsibility to represent the best interests of their constituents. And the American people have clearly communicated that they do not want a war with Iran. They especially do not want a regime-change war (just 5 percent of Democrats, and only 17 percent of Republicans). They understand the risks. They have learned from the past failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. It is shocking that so many in Washington, DC have not.
With just over a year into his second term, President Trump has demonstrated that America First means whatever he wants it to mean. The claims of senior Trump advisors in the waning days of the campaign, that “Trump = Peace”, and that he would keep Americans out of foreign wars, have aged badly. It turns out that President Trump is just as fond of war as his predecessors, and arguably more so.
But every member of Congress still has a chance, and indeed a duty, to stand up for the people that they serve. They must behave as the co-equal branch of government that they are, and the check on presidential power that they were always meant to be. They must debate the costs and risks of this war. They must use their platform to elevate the best arguments, not merely those who desire war with Iran, and who will say anything to get it. And every Senator, and every House member, must stand and be counted, by voting yes or no on taking this country to war.
I also commend the contributions from my Stimson colleagues Emma Ashford, Evan Cooper, Kelly Grieco, and James Kim in that same symposium, as well as longer commentaries by Barbara Slavin regarding what comes next in Iran, and Barbara with Richard Cupitt and Christina McAllister on securing CBRN materials in Iran.
Kelly was also quoted in the Wall Street Journal re: the rapid depletion of U.S. munitions, especially interceptors.
And Emma had a piece at Foreign Policy on how Trump is forgetting his promise to avoid Bush-era interventions.
And here are some other commentary pieces that I shared over the weekend from experts outside of the Stimson Center. Not in any particular order; some are paywalled.
Tim Kaine, “An Unwise and Unconstitutional Attack on Iran,” Wall Street Journal
Jeremy Shapiro, “Operation Epic Futility,” Blue Blaze
Sohrab Ahmari, “How JD Vance lost the foreign policy war,” UnHerd
Matt Duss being interviewed by Isaac Chotiner, “Trump’s Reckless Decision to Pursue Regime Change in Iran,” The New Yorker
Oh, and one last thing: if you weren’t one of the people who made hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on Polymarket, you’re apparently a chump (but you’re in good company)
More later.